When the price of domestically produced SiC modules first drops below that of imported IGBTs, when 8-inch silicon carbide substrates break through technological barriers, and when demand from new-energy vehicles drives market growth—by 2025, the silicon carbide device industry is undergoing a critical battle defined by technological substitution, price wars, and the rise of domestic alternatives.

I. Technological Displacement: The "Performance Revolution" of SiC Devices

1.1 2025: The "IGBT Terminator" Makes Its Debut

Performance Overwhelming:

High-frequency and high-efficiency: SiC MOSFETs achieve switching frequencies of up to hundreds of kHz (IGBTs are limited to below 20 kHz), reducing switching losses by 70%–80%.

High voltage and temperature resistance: Withstands up to 3300V (IGBTs typically operate at 1200V), and junction temperatures exceeding 200°C, making it suitable for 800V electric vehicle platforms.

System Optimization: The inductor's volume is reduced by 50%, thermal dissipation requirements are lowered by 30%, and long-term energy-saving benefits are significant.

Cost inflection point:

Price Paradox: For the first time, the unit price of domestically produced 6-inch SiC MOSFETs has fallen below that of IGBTs with the same power rating, creating a "double whammy of price and performance."

Full Lifecycle Advantage: Efficiency improved by 5%-10%, maintenance costs reduced, and payback period of 1-2 years.

Case:

Tesla's 4680 Battery Revolution

Technological Integration: By adopting a SiC-based main drive inverter, the vehicle's range is improved by 5%, and charging efficiency allows for an 80% charge in just 15 minutes.

Supply chain transformation: Driving domestic suppliers like Star Semiconductor and HuaRun Micro to iteratively advance their technologies, with some key metrics now approaching those of the global industry leader, Wolfspeed.

1.2 The 8-Inch Breakthrough: China's "Technological Singularity" in Domestic Substitution

According to Of the Zhongyan Puhua Industry Research Institute 《 2025-2030 China Silicon Carbide Devices Industry Comprehensive Research and Investment Trend Forecast Report 》 Analysis and Forecast

Capacity Surge:

San'an Optoelectronics: Chongqing's 8-inch production line begins operations, with a capacity of 10,000 to 15,000 wafers per month by 2025.

Tianyue Advanced: 8-inch substrate yield exceeds expectations, with export prices remaining above 3,000 yuan.

Strategic significance:

Unit cost has decreased by 60% (theoretical value), although the current yield still requires optimization.

Global Competition: China’s 8-inch production line is ahead of overseas giants Wolfspeed and II-VI in terms of progress.

II. Price War: A "Market Bloodbath" Driven by Demand

2.1 Downstream Demand: The "Whale-Consuming Effect" of New Energy Vehicles

Market Size: China's silicon carbide device market is projected to reach 6 billion yuan by 2025, with an annual compound growth rate of 8% to 10%.

Demand share: New energy vehicles account for 45% of the market, with Tesla and BYD taking the lead in adopting SiC power modules.

2.2 Price Plunge: From "4,000 yuan" to "2,500 yuan"

6-inch substrates: Prices dropped to 2,500–2,800 yuan by the end of 2024, marking a year-over-year decline of over 40%.

Domestically produced modules: 6-in-1 SiC modules are priced as low as 1,500 yuan, while leading international brands have dropped below 2,000 yuan.

Driving factors:

Scale effect: Domestic suppliers are expanding production, leading to a surge in market supply.

Downstream pressure: Automakers are driving bulk purchases to lower prices, while leading automakers are forging deep collaborations with external component suppliers.

2.3 Market Shuffle: The "Life-or-Death Moment" for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

Competitive Landscape:

Leading enterprises such as Tianyue Advanced and Star Semiconductor are expanding production by leveraging their technological advantages.

Small and medium-sized enterprises: Lacking funds and technology, some manufacturers are resorting to low-price strategies in a "last-ditch effort."

Elimination round rules:

Technical Barriers: Companies with an 8-inch yield rate below 60% face elimination.

Supply Chain Security: Domestic Equipment Substitution Accelerates, with Jingsheng Machinery & Electric and Northern Hi-Tech Rising Stronger.

III. Domestic Substitution: From "Following" to "Leading"

3.1 Breaking Through the Industry Chain: From "Substrate" to "Module"

Upstream materials:

6-inch conductive substrates: Scalable production has driven costs down by 40% compared to 2020.

8-inch technology: Tianyue Advanced and Jingsheng Electric Machinery achieve breakthroughs, with monthly production capacity expected to reach 10,000–15,000 wafers by 2025.

Midstream Manufacturing:

Schottky diodes: The penetration rate of photovoltaic inverters has increased from 5% to 20%.

MOSFET: Star Semiconductor's products have passed automotive-grade certification and have entered Tesla's supply chain.

3.2 Policy Benefits: 5 Billion Subsidies and "First-of-its-Kind" Insurance

Policy Support:

MIIT: 5 billion yuan allocated in 2024 to support SiC technology R&D.

Local governments: Launching insurance compensation for the "first-of-its-kind" equipment to reduce risks associated with the adoption of domestically produced devices.

Capital influx: In 2023, financing in the silicon carbide sector exceeded 20 billion yuan, covering substrate manufacturing and domestic production of equipment.

3.3 Global Competition: From "Participant" to "Rule Maker"

Technical advantages:

Customized services: Domestic manufacturers offer differentiated solutions for corrosion-resistant packaging and high-voltage models.

Vertical Integration: Terminal manufacturers like BYD are replicating the IDM model to drive cost reductions across the entire industry chain.

International Status:

Patent Strategy: Chinese companies rank second globally in the number of patent applications filed in the SiC device sector.

Standard Setting: Participate in the development of international SiC power device standards to enhance our influence and voice.

Conclusion:

In 2025, the silicon carbide device industry is undergoing a triple revolution: "technological substitution, price wars, and domestic substitution." As SiC devices disrupt the traditional IGBT market with their performance breakthroughs, price wars force reshuffling across the industry chain, and domestic players advance from substrate-level innovations to global competition—China's silicon carbide industry is transforming from a "follower" into a "leader." Looking ahead, as the new energy revolution deepens and smart manufacturing continues to evolve, silicon carbide devices will emerge as a pivotal force in reshaping the global semiconductor landscape. And China? It may well be poised to write its own industrial legend in this green energy transition.