Silicon carbide (SiC), as the core material of the third-generation semiconductors, boasts its High breakdown electric field strength, high thermal conductivity, and high temperature resistance , showcasing tremendous application potential in fields such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic energy storage, and 5G communications.

In 2024, the domestic SiC substrate and epitaxy market experienced Sharp price fluctuations amid significant capacity expansion , especially The price of 6-inch SiC substrates has nearly reached the cost threshold. Meanwhile, breakthroughs in 8-inch technology are also gaining momentum. As market competition intensifies, the primary driver behind falling prices comes from The rapid growth of downstream market demand , at the same time Competition among domestic suppliers intensifies. It has also accelerated the decline in prices.

Looking ahead to 2025, the SiC market will witness an industry reshuffle. Technological strength, financial reserves, and the ability to collaborate across the industrial chain Will determine the company's survival space. As prices stabilize, the industry will enter High-quality development stage , forming a more mature competitive landscape.

PART 1: Current Status and Expansion Speed of the SiC Epitaxy and Substrate Market

SiC Substrates and Epitaxy Technology: The Core Component of SiC Devices

SiC substrates serve as the foundation for epitaxial growth, and the quality of the epitaxial layer directly determines the critical performance of devices, such as Withstand Voltage Capability and Defect Density As of March 2024, the annual production capacity of domestic SiC epitaxial wafers has nearly reached 2 million tablets , the future plan aims to further boost total production capacity beyond existing levels. 7 million tablets , showcasing a strong trend toward industrialization.

The 6-inch substrate remains the market mainstream, while 8-inch technology is gaining momentum.

• 6-inch substrate prices have dropped significantly By the end of 2024, The price of domestic 6-inch SiC MOS substrates has dropped to between 2,500 and 2,800 yuan. , the annual decline exceeded 40%, nearing the cost threshold. But Tianyue Advanced Leveraging its technological advantages, the domestic price remains stable at 2800 to 3000 yuan , export prices have even stabilized at More than 3,000 yuan 。

• 8-inch substrate production capacity is gradually being released Domestic manufacturers Tianyue Advanced, Jingsheng Electric Machinery Several enterprises have already achieved technological breakthroughs, and by 2025 Monthly production capacity is expected to reach 10,000 to 15,000 wafers. However, Uniformity and yield still lag behind those of 6 inches. , it will be difficult to completely replace the 6-inch substrate in the short term. Future projections suggest Within three years, 6-inch substrates will still maintain their market competitiveness. 。

The external market is growing rapidly, with CVD technology taking the lead.

• Mainstream Epitaxial Technology Currently, Chemical vapor deposition (CVD) remains the most mature epitaxial process. Domestic manufacturers include Handian Tiancheng and Tianyu Semiconductor. Already achieved 6-inch and 8-inch epitaxial wafer mass production 。

• The epitaxial layer determines device performance As 1200V SiC devices require 10–15 μm epitaxial layer Meanwhile, the 15,000V ultra-high-voltage devices require Epitaxial layer exceeding 145 μm 。

• Technical bottlenecks such as micropipes and basal plane dislocations (BPD) remain critical issues affecting device yield. is currently a key focus area for industry breakthroughs.

• Equipment localization accelerates at Jingsheng Machinery & Electric and Northern Hi-Tech Domestic equipment manufacturers are currently Gradually breaking the monopoly of international giants Aixtron and LPE , promoting the increase in the localization rate of equipment.

The new energy vehicle market is driving growth in SiC demand.

• SiC power modules see a significant price drop International manufacturers' 6-inch silicon carbide modules The price has dropped to Within 2000 yuan , domestic manufacturers can even go as low as 1500 yuan , accelerating the penetration rate of SiC in new energy vehicles.

• Local governments and capital drive industry expansion With proactive deployments by governments and investment institutions across various regions, SiC capacity expansion has entered a new phase. Peak period , but it also brought about the market Supply surplus The risk.

Expected The 2025 SiC market will enter a knockout stage. ， Small and medium-sized enterprises may be phased out of the market due to insufficient funding and technological capabilities. , and Leading enterprises with a fully integrated industrial chain layout will capture a larger market share. 。

PART 2: Drivers Behind the Decline in SiC Substrate and Module Prices

1. Downstream demand drives SiC prices down

• Strong demand for new energy vehicles SiC devices are highly cost-sensitive. As the penetration rate of electric vehicles continues to rise, Automotive companies are making large-scale purchases of SiC modules. , prompting suppliers to through Scale effects reduce costs 。

• The Rise of the Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Markets SiC device's High-temperature resistance and high-efficiency features Making it indispensable in new energy applications. As the "Dual Carbon" policy advances, Photovoltaic capacity installations and energy storage demand surge. , The demand for SiC substrates and epitaxial wafers is growing in tandem, driving prices downward.

2. Domestic suppliers face intensifying competition, and the price war is escalating further.

In 2024, domestic 6-inch SiC substrates Prices have fallen by more than 40% over the past year. , from the beginning of the year From 4,000–4,500 yuan, it has dropped to 2,500–2,800 yuan. , pushing right up against the cost line. Small and medium-sized manufacturers are grabbing market share through low prices, leading to cutthroat competition—but this is also accelerating the widespread adoption of SiC products while driving cost optimization.

3. Technological advancements drive down costs

• Substrate Growth Process Optimization Technological advancements such as the Physical Vapor Transport (PVT) method have helped reduce the defect rate in SiC crystals, leading to continuously improving yields. For instance, The microtubule density on the 6-inch substrate has decreased from 10/cm² to below 1/cm². , product quality has significantly improved.

• The trend of cost reduction for 8-inch substrates is evident Theoretically, an 8-inch SiC substrate can reduce device manufacturing costs. 60% However, the yield still needs optimization, and 6-inch wafers will remain the primary focus in the short term.

4. Scale effects enhance cost competitiveness

• Vertically integrated model reduces costs Leading enterprises (such as BYD) have already established themselves. From substrate to module: a full-chain layout , reduce supply chain costs and enhance production efficiency.

2025 SiC Market Price Forecast and Trends

• 6-inch SiC substrate Expected price decline in 2025 Slow down to 10-20% , the bottom line may stabilize at More than 2000 yuan 。

• 8-inch SiC substrate Current price 8,000 to 10,000 yuan , expected to drop rapidly Within 5,000 yuan However, due to yield limitations, it will still be difficult to become the market mainstream in the short term.

• SiC Power Module Domestically produced 6-in-1 SiC modules are expected to see prices drop to 1200 to 1500 yuan , further enhancing market competitiveness.

Summary: The SiC market is witnessing an industry reshuffle, with leading companies continuing to strengthen their dominant positions.

The SiC market is currently at a critical stage marked by technological breakthroughs, capacity expansion, and declining prices. In the short term, intensified market competition has led to Price War But in the long run, this will Promote the maturation and optimization of the SiC industry chain 。

In 2025, Industry reshuffling is accelerating, and companies with strong financial resources, cutting-edge technology, and outstanding supply-chain integration capabilities will ultimately emerge as the winners. After the price war comes to a halt, the SiC industry will enter High-quality development stage , providing higher-quality core materials for industries such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic energy storage.